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Amazon

As of November 2, 2026 (Q3 2026 results). Updated when Amazon reports or signs something that changes the bet. [All companies](/blog/companies).

Amazon is borrowing for the buildout: $115B of new debt this year and no new stock, and part of the money goes into OpenAI and Anthropic, two labs that have each committed more than $100B to AWS.

The bet

AWS is the bet. It sold $46.0B in Q3, up 39%, and its growth rate has risen every quarter since Q2 2025, when it was 17%. It earned $17.8B of operating income in the quarter.¹ Contracted revenue not yet recognized is about $578B, with an average remaining life of 6.1 years. Inside that backlog, OpenAI added $100B over eight years to an existing $38B commitment, and Anthropic added more than $100B over ten years.² The shares closed down 1.4% the day after the results.⁴

To serve it, Amazon spent $77.3B on capex in Q3, or $75.9B net of proceeds and incentives, the "cash capex" basis it guides on. The 2026 guide is about $220B, up from about $200B in February.¹

The chips are the other half. Amazon's chips business passed a $20B annual run rate in April, Andy Jassy says most of Bedrock now runs on Trainium, and Amazon plans to sell Trainium outside AWS late in 2027 (announced, not live).³ It still announced more than a million Nvidia GPUs in April, to be deployed starting this year.

How it's paying for it

The debt came as six note deals in five currencies, about $97B in all, plus a $17.5B term loan drawn in September. Long-term debt went from $65.6B at the end of 2025 to $173.1B, and quarterly interest expense more than tripled, to $1.7B.¹ Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow, on Amazon's own definition, is −$42.4B. Q3 operating cash flow was +$42.4B, so the release contains the same number twice with opposite signs, which is worth knowing before you trust anyone's chart.

Behind that sits a secured loan facility of up to about $80B for infrastructure purchases, drawable from early 2027 through Q3 2028, with the equipment as collateral; the 10-Q doesn't name the lender. There's also $164.9B of signed leases that haven't started yet, off the balance sheet until they do.²

Our read

Louis's frame (after Ben Thompson on Sharp Tech): if the hyperscalers end up funding the whole buildout and the money runs out before revenue catches up, it ends like the railroads, and the survivors come out with leverage over Nvidia and TSMC. Amazon fits the first half most literally: it's paying with debt, and it's funding the demand side too: $60B into OpenAI and Anthropic this year, while both have committed more than $100B each to AWS. If the labs' money runs out, the investments and that backlog are exposed together. AWS is also the clearest sign that revenue is showing up, at $17.8B of operating income a quarter. And Trainium is the second half of the frame already in motion: a chip of its own, already carrying most of Bedrock, with outside sales on the calendar.

What we're watching

• The Q4 capex figure. The guide and the $172.2B spent so far are on the same net basis, so about $220B implies roughly $48B in Q4, against $75.9B in Q3 (our arithmetic). Nothing in the 10-Q or on the call explains the drop.
• Who the lender on the $80B facility is, and when Amazon draws on it. If it's a supplier, that's vendor financing.
• The 2027 capex number. The 10-Q says spending will "meaningfully increase" but gives no figure.
• Trainium sales outside AWS, due late 2027.

Changelog

• 2026-11-02: first version (Q3 2026).

Disclosures

Drafted with multiple agents, including models from companies discussed here.

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Notes

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