# SpaceX

*As of November 2, 2026 (Q3 2026 results). Updated when SpaceX reports or signs something that changes the bet. [All companies](/blog/companies).*

==SpaceX bought xAI, went public to pay for the data centers, and now rents a large share of that compute to other AI companies, Anthropic and Google among them, on contracts either side can end on 90 days' notice.==

## The bet

SpaceX bought xAI in an all-stock deal on Feb 2, then listed on Jun 12 and raised $86.25B gross, with AI compute first in the use of proceeds.[^1] xAI, X and Cursor (bought in August, in stock, at an implied $60B) now report together as the SI ("Super Intelligence") segment. It sold $7.56B in Q3, up from $0.81B a year earlier, with $431M of operating income; Cursor brought $608M, and the company credits most of the rest of the jump to cloud-services contracts kicking in.[^2] The stock rose 7.8% the day after the results and fell 9.1% the day after that.[^7]

Those contracts are the unusual part. Anthropic pays $1.25B a month through May 2029 for about 325,000 Nvidia GPUs across Colossus and Colossus II, and Google pays about $920M a month for about 110,000 GPUs from October 2026 to June 2029.[^1][^3] After an initial period, either side can end either deal on 90 days' notice. Musk says compute is split about 50/50 between internal use and rentals, priced near the spot rate.[^4] One SI customer supplied 34.5% of SpaceX's Q3 revenue; the filing doesn't name it.

Installed compute was 1.7 GW at Sep 30, up from 0.6 GW a year earlier, and the CFO expects 2.5–3 GW by year-end.[^2][^4] All of it is Nvidia, bought on purchase orders with no long-term contracts.[^1] Terafab, a chip framework with Tesla and Intel, has no definitive agreements; Musk is targeting a first test chip around mid-2027. Then there's orbit: an FCC application for up to a million data-center satellites, accepted for filing in February, with no grant found. SpaceX's own start dates range from 2027 to 2028.[^6] It's the only company on these pages whose capacity plan needs a launch schedule.

## How it's paying for it

| | Q3 2026 | 2026 so far |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Capex | $19.6B | $48.1B |
| Operating cash flow minus capex | −$10.0B | −$35.0B |
| Stock sold | — | $85.7B net (IPO), plus $8.3B before it |
| Notes issued | — | $25.0B (June) |
| Sale-leaseback debt (Valor) | $12.9B outstanding | up from $4.5B in December |
| Buybacks | $0 | $4.4B |

*Company-reported, from the [Q3 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066880/spcx-20260930.htm) and [Q3 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066482/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm), except operating cash flow minus capex, which is our arithmetic. SpaceX doesn't report free cash flow.*

Q4 capex guidance is $35–40B, which would put 2026 at about $83–88B (our arithmetic); there's no 2027 guide.[^4] June's $25B of investment-grade notes repaid a March bridge loan that had retired xAI's and X's expensive debt, including 12.5% notes.[^2] The Valor sale-leasebacks of AI hardware are booked as debt; Valor's founder sits on SpaceX's board. Next is a signed commitment for a roughly $40B GPU finance lease with an Apollo-managed entity, expected to close by year-end.[^5] Cash and securities are about $89.9B, down from about $100B in June.

## Our read

Louis's frame (after Ben Thompson on Sharp Tech): if the hyperscalers end up funding the whole buildout and the money runs out before revenue catches up, it ends like the railroads, and the survivors come out with leverage over Nvidia and TSMC. SpaceX bends the first half. It's funding a buildout, but by Musk's count about half the capacity is rented to other companies, so its exposure runs through its tenants: if their money runs short, that revenue can leave on 90 days' notice. The second half is where it fits worst. It's the most Nvidia-dependent company on these pages, buying on purchase orders, and its own chip is still a framework and a 2027 test target.

## What we're watching

- The Apollo lease closing, and at what rate.
- Who the 34.5% customer is, from the 10-K or the Q4 call.
- Renewals, which Musk says are pricing higher per watt. Google's 90-day exit opens after Dec 31.
- The board's study of a combination with Tesla.
- Terafab's first test chip, and any FCC grant for the orbital system.

## Changelog

- **2026-11-02:** first version (Q3 2026).

[^1]: SpaceX, [final prospectus (424B4)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm), Jun 12, 2026.
[^2]: SpaceX, [10-Q for Q3 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066880/spcx-20260930.htm), filed Oct 22, 2026, and the [Q3 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066482/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm), Oct 20.
[^3]: SpaceX, [free writing prospectus on the Google agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026041150/spacexagreementfwp.htm), Jun 5, 2026. The contracts themselves aren't filed. Anthropic's own [announcement](https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex) (May 6) describes a smaller first phase at Colossus 1.
[^4]: SpaceX, [Q3 webcast transcript](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/content_files/SpaceX-Third-Quarter-2026-Webcast-Transcript.pdf) (company-edited), Oct 20, 2026. Q4 capex is guidance; Musk's capacity, chip and pricing remarks are forward-looking statements, not guidance.
[^5]: SpaceX, [8-K on the Apollo commitment](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000110465926118614/tm2628247d1_8k.htm), Oct 26, 2026.
[^6]: FCC, [Public Notice DA 26-113](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-113A1.pdf), Feb 4, 2026.
[^7]: Nasdaq [historical quotes](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spcx/historical): $147.79 on Oct 20, $159.31 on Oct 21, $144.75 on Oct 22.

*Disclosures: Louis previously worked at Google. Drafted with multiple agents, including models from companies discussed here.*